8th Feb 2026
How is the Market Health
βDonβt fight the tape and donβt fight the Fed.β – Marty Zweig. He created the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, directly tying market breadth to timing entries
You would have seen how sometimes headlines scream that the market was great yesterday, but when you look at your portfolio, it hasnβt moved much. Why this dichotomy? The reason is market breadth. When headlines scream the market is doing well, it is based on the Nifty 50 in the Indian market or the Dow Jones in the US markets. If stocks under the Nifty 50 are doing well, that is not equivalent to your portfolio, which may consist of the top 500 stocks performing well.
When this divergence happens, we know that the entire market is not performing, and we have to be cautious. What is the scenario as of now? Only 35% of the stocks are above the 50 EMA. (You may read about the importance of EMA in another blog here.) I would like at least 50% of stocks to be above the 50 EMA. This would mean my probability of winning increases when I actually go in for a trade. I want the trend to be up rather than betting my chips when most of the market is struggling.
Silver – As discussed last week, the downfall in silver was swift. Silver is 45% down from the highs in a week. History always rhymes. We discussed that silver could have a brutal fall, though in a real trade it is extremely difficult to identify that.
Nifty 50 – I would want at least 26,000β26,100 to be taken out for the markets to resume an upswing. Bank Nifty is on a stronger footing as of now.
Banknifty – Bank Nifty is well above the 50 EMA and closer to its all-time high. There are fewer stocks that are structurally proper and strong. Letβs look at a couple of them.
MTAR – The stock hasnβt fallen in the last 2β3 weeks when the markets were volatile. The Q3 results are also out. Though there is no low-risk entry visible at the moment, a small base formation near 3,100 would help create an entry opportunity.
Nykaa – The Q3 results were out on Friday. However, the stock has moved around 20% in roughly a week. I do not see linearity and would prefer consolidation at the top of the base breakout, which would provide a low-risk entry.
Navin Fluorine – The stock is consolidating above the breakout and looks good to me. If the stock falls below the blue line, I wouldnβt be interested.
Acutaas Chemicals – A similar structure to Navin Fluorine is forming here. However, I would prefer Navin because Acutaas has been more volatile (it broke the 50 EMA and bounced back), whereas Navin Fluorine has been less choppy.
Overall, I would expect the market to have more than 50% of stocks above the 50 EMA. That would be a point to initiate more long trades and increase the probability of winners.
Happy Learning!